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Experts have a half-glass full outlook for the economy while average Americans are far more pessimistic. Here's why the consumer is probably right.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Consumers and economists strongly disagree about which direction the economy is going.

Many economists are looking for at least a modest rebound in the second half of this year. That's a key part of the reason the Federal Reserve is expected to end its nine-month course of rate cuts and keep rates steady Wednesday.

But 5,000 consumers surveyed earlier this month by The Conference Board, a well-respected private business research group, gave the bleakest six-month outlook for the economy ever in the nearly 42 year history of the survey.